Image source
The Premier League returned to action on Boxing Day following a month-long layoff. It
was Arsenal returning to winning ways and maintaining their position at the division's
summit. Which teams are on track for Champions League qualification, and who will win
the title race? Let's take a closer look at the expectations heading into 2023.
Fresh from the first-ever winter World Cup in FIFA history, domestic action has returned as pundits
begin to speculate how the competition will impact EPL football.
Thus far, the heavy hitters – Arsenal, Chelsea, Manchester United, Newcastle, and Liverpool –
resumed their top-four finishing form as we await one more result from the title holders Manchester
City to confirm the division's elite clubs are all back in the race for English football supremacy.
Not every superstar visited Qatar last month, and with a month's rest, it took Mohamed Salah five
minutes to remind the league why he's one of the best in the world when punishing Aston Villa on
Boxing Day. Another terrifying thought is that Erling Haaland, the current
EPL top goalscorer, has
also had a month to rest up and recuperate. With that said, perhaps the likes of Cristian Romero,
Alexis Mac Allister, and Emiliano Martinez will return to the cold winds of the United Kingdom,
generating their World Cup confidence and inspiring their team to a higher level.
Instead of making bold predictions, we will trust the world's supercomputers to assist our predictions.
What does the supercomputer have to say about the probability of this year's EPL title winners and
who will qualify for next season's UCL?
Let's take a look.
EPL 2022/23 Title Prediction
Arsenal leads the Premier League heading into 2023; more often than not, this is a positive sign of
title success. Thirteen of the previous 18 teams in first place on New Year's Day have ended the
season as EPL champions.
However,
betting sites UK doesn't agree, and neither does the supercomputer.
Premier League – Winner Betting Odds
- Manchester City [1.53] - 65.4%
- Arsenal [3.25] - 30.8%
- Newcastle [26.00] – 3.8%
- Liverpool [29.00] – 3.4%
- Manchester United [67.00] – 1.5%
- Tottenham Hotspur [101.00] – 1%
- Chelsea [251.00] - 0.4%
Premier League Winners – Supercomputer
Predictions stem from 100,000 simulations taken from the remainder of the season.
- Manchester City - 74.8%
- Arsenal - 22.5%
- Newcastle – 3.8%
- Liverpool – 1.6%
- Tottenham Hotspur – 1%
With a 72% return on teams winning the title who's in topping the table in January, you'd expect the
bookmakers and the supercomputer to give Mikel Arteta and his Arsenal squad a greater chance of
success. But no, the supercomputer gives Arsenal a mere 22.4% chance of winning the title, an 8.4%
drop lower than oddsmakers. Nevertheless, Guardiola's men have been in this position in two recent
seasons. Teams topping the table in the New Year have fallen victim to the blue side of Manchester's
title-winning aspirations (Liverpool 2018/19 and 2020/21).
UCL Qualifying % – Supercomputer
Predictions stem from 100,000 simulations taken from the remainder of the season.
- Manchester City – 99.7%
- Arsenal - 96.6%
- Liverpool – 76.2%
- Newcastle – 37.9%
- Tottenham Hotspur – 37.7%
- Manchester United – 32.9%
- Chelsea – 17.1%
- Brighton & Hove Albion – 1.6%
- Crystal Palace – 0.2%
- Leicester City – 0.1%
Manchester City, Arsenal, and Liverpool are pretty much a given at this point, as most predictors –
human or computer – expect these sides to find a top-four finish. However, the intriguing numbers
reside in the fourth and final spot, as the supercomputer percentages believe it's entirely up for
grabs between Newcastle, Tottenham, and Manchester United.
Although they're currently in sixth place, Liverpool is given the third-best chance of
securing
UCL qualification.
I wonder if the supercomputer understands that Mohamed Salah has been resting and is ready to unleash his wrath on the pitch.
With a 3-0 win over Leicester City on Boxing Day, Newcastle continues to be the up-and-coming
team of the division. Tottenham was the only squad that failed to claim all three points of all the
teams mentioned.
Bookmakers have a slightly different opinion of the supercomputer, as the oddsmakers give the Red
Devils a greater chance at securing a top-four finish this term over Spurs.
Premier League – Top Four Finish Betting Odds
- Manchester City [1.01] - 99%
- Arsenal [1.06] - 94.3%
- Liverpool [1.53] – 65.4%
- Newcastle [2.00] – 50%
- Manchester United [2.10] – 47.6%
- Tottenham Hotspur [2.88] – 34.7%
- Chelsea [5.00] - 20%